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    <meta name="description" content="文/新浪财经意见领袖专栏（微信公众号kopleader）专栏作家姜伯静万科目前的矛盾，最突出的矛盾是地方国企与央企的矛盾。深圳地铁作为地方国企，要占据央企华润曾经的位置，这显然是一个不能让华润接受的现实。当二者的矛盾激化到一定程度，就必须让" />
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	<h1 id="artibodyTitle" cid="56459" docid="fxtmwei9390332">妥协是万科宫斗最好的结果</h1>
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<span id="pub_date">2016年06月28日08:43</span>&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<span class="art_author" id="author_ename">作者:<a href="http://zhuanlan.sina.com.cn/author/jiangmingjing/index.shtml" target="_blank">姜伯静</a></span>&nbsp;&nbsp;<a  class="support_fun" id="J_To_Support" href="javascript:;" title="赞一个" action-type="to_support">(<em>0</em>)<span class="support_tip">+1</span></a>  <a  id="media_comment" href="#J_Comment_Wrap" rel="我有话说" class="J_Comment_Count_Txt" style="display:none;" action-type="anchorGo" data-sudaclick="media_comment">我有话说</a>
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    <p>　　<span style="font-family: 微软雅黑;">文/新浪财经意见领袖专栏（微信公众号kopleader）专栏作家 姜伯静</span></p>
<p>　　<span style="font-family: KaiTi_GB2312,KaiTi;">万科目前的矛盾，最突出的矛盾是地方国企与央企的矛盾。深圳地铁作为地方国企，要占据央企华润曾经的位置，这显然是一个不能让华润接受的现实。当二者的矛盾激化到一定程度，就必须让领导层介入了。</span></p>
<p><span style="font-family: KaiTi_GB2312,KaiTi;"></span></p>
<div class="img_wrapper"><img src="http://n.sinaimg.cn/finance/transform/20160627/d__c-fxtmweh2580566.jpg" alt="妥协是万科宫斗最好的结果" data-link=""><span class="img_descr">妥协是万科宫斗最好的结果</span></div>
<p><span style="font-family: KaiTi_GB2312,KaiTi;"></span></p>
<p>　　在混乱与平淡中，6月27日的万科股东大会落下帷幕。</p>
<p>　　说它混乱，是因为现场有些无序；说它平淡，是因为有些敏感问题被刻意的忽略。</p>
<p>　　从股东大会透露的一些信息看，万科宫斗的迷局，应该还会延续。</p>
<p>　　不过，很多人都希望万科会有转机，希望各方尤其是强势的大股东和管理层们都能够妥协一下，出现一个能把伤害降到最低的结果，而不是出现极端的局面。而这种转机，需要出现一个X因素。万科迷局如果能有X因素出现，结果或许会大不一样。那么，这个X因素是什么？笔者感觉就是监管部门及领导层的介入！</p>
<p>　　首先，说一下监管部门。</p>
<p>　　在股东大会上，<a class="wt_article_link" onmouseover="WeiboCard.show(1193491727,'finance',this)" href="http://weibo.com/wangshi?zw=finance" target="_blank">王石</a>已经开始呼唤监管部门的介入。他说，“这样来讲，我相信中国改革开放到了今天到现在，我们如何运行这个市场，我们监管部门已经有了相当的经验，我相信监管部门这个时候会出来表态的，为什么我们乐观，就乐观在这里，不是资本你想怎么做就怎么做的。”</p>
<p>　　果不其然，6月27日晚间，深交所向华润及“宝能系”分别下发关注函，要求双方各自说明，二者是否存在协议或其他安排等形式，以共同扩大所能支配的万科股份表决权数量的行为或事实，同时须对照《上市公司收购管理办法》说明是否互为一致行动人及其理由。</p>
<p>　　<strong>深交所的问询，虽然不一定会改变万科宫斗的结果，但极有可能会影响万科宫斗的走势和激烈程度。</strong></p>
<p>　　深交所的这种介入，是王石希望看到的介入方式，因为它针对的应该是华润与宝能系之间的背后关系。而华润与宝能系背后的关系，或者说有没有关系，恰恰是很多中小股东希望看清楚的。</p>
<p>　　但是，监管部门的介入也是一把双刃剑。监管部门的介入，亦有可能对万科管理层不利。如果，监管部门对以下几件事情进行追究的话，那王石和万科也会很尴尬。</p>
<p>　　<strong>一件事是停牌时间过久。</strong>万科停牌已经远远超过了6个月，甚至还得延长几天。而《上市公司停复牌业务备忘录》规定：“筹划重大资产重组的，停牌时间原则上不超过3个月，连续筹划重组的，停牌不超过5个月；筹划非公开发行的，原则上不超过1个月；筹划控制权变更、重大合同以及须提交股东大会审议的购买或出售资产、对外投资等其他事项的，原则上不超过10个交易日。”</p>
<p>　　<strong>一件事是无目的性的停牌。</strong>已经有人指出，万科停牌时没有明确的重组项目，这种停牌是否涉嫌证券欺诈，是个敏感问题。</p>
<p>　　当然，还有一个微妙之处，如果监管部门追究这两件事情，也算是自己打脸——当初为何没有注意到这两件事情呢？</p>
<p>　　当然，如果监管部门能够“各打五十大板”的话，结果会怎么样呢？</p>
<p>　　第二，再说一下领导层。</p>
<p>　　在股东大会上，已经有人提出，希望王石同华润高层甚至更高领导层沟通。</p>
<p>　　而6月27日，<a class="wt_article_link" onmouseover="WeiboCard.show(2752396553,'finance',this)" href="http://weibo.com/guozixiaoxin?zw=finance" target="_blank"><a class="wt_article_link" onmouseover="WeiboCard.show(2752396553,'finance',this)" href="http://weibo.com/guozixiaoxin?zw=finance" target="_blank">国资委</a></a>主任肖亚庆在夏季达沃斯会场内回应万科股权之争一事说：“只要有利于深圳的发展，有利于企业的发展，我们国资委就支持。”</p>
<p>　　国资委的这种态度，并不十分的明朗。但是，如果万科宫斗到了不可收拾的地步，或者有不可收拾的危险的话，那领导层介入是在所难免的事情。因为万科宫斗涉及的问题太多。</p>
<p>　　<strong>一个问题是央企的利益。</strong>华润在内部问题理顺完毕后积极的反对万科重组，反对深圳地铁成为万科第一大股东，是因为自己的利益会在目前的重组方式中受损。作为央企，在目前的环境下利益受损不是小事情，所谓“守土有责”，这不是一时意气。而随着事态的发展，作为央企的主管，国资委不会置身事外的。</p>
<p>　　<strong>一个问题是地方国企与央企的矛盾。</strong>万科目前的矛盾，最突出的矛盾是地方国企与央企的矛盾。深圳地铁作为地方国企，要占据央企华润曾经的位置，这显然是一个不能让华润接受的现实。当二者的矛盾激化到一定程度，就必须让领导层介入了。</p>
<p>　　<strong>另一个问题是地方政府与央企的矛盾。</strong>深圳地铁的背后，其实是深圳政府。而地方国企与央企的矛盾，其实也是地方政府和央企华润的矛盾。2016年3月，有媒体报道称，“深圳地铁资产注入万科，获得了深圳市政府的全力支持”。万科曾经对媒体表示：“深圳地铁与万科的合作计划，是获得深圳市政府审批的。”万科集团6月19日晚间就引入深圳地铁重组预案召开电话会议时，万科高级副总裁谭华杰称，“对此重组，深圳市政府的态度是市场化原则下乐见其成。”这样看，坚决支持深圳地铁的深圳政府，与华润难免会有冲突。这样一来，领导层岂可坐视？</p>
<p>　　最后，如果监管部门及领导层都介入的话，那么最佳的结果就是妥协！</p>
<p>　　我想，妥协是最好的结果。各打五十大板，或者各让一步，有何不可？下面，是我设想的几种结果。</p>
<p>　　比如，重组成功，华润重回第一大股东的位置，王石及管理层留任。或者，王石离开，管理层留任，重组成功，华润重回第一大股东的位置。最差的结果，重组终止，一切恢复原样，再图未来！</p>
<p>　　不管怎么样，极端性的结果是最差的一种选择。而妥协，是最佳的局面。</p>
<p>　　其实，我感觉王石在股东大会上已经没有了硬扛下去的意思，也许他也希望妥协。所以，我们期待万科迷局X因素的出现，监管部门及领导层能够及时介入！</p>
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